零售行业全年业绩增速将比三季度放缓

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山西证券零售行业分析师樊慧远下午做客《交易实况》，太阳城开户www.77suncity.biz为大家解读零售行业投资机会，樊慧远认为零售行业全年的业绩增速将比前三季度有所放缓。
　　主持人：我们来看一些零售企业相关的上市公司，首先我们看到重庆百货，上周重庆百货2011年业绩快报也是出炉了，虽然每股收益达到了1.61元，但是净利润14%的增速低于此前市场预期，对于此番业绩快报您认为是重庆百货自身经营问题，导致未达预期，还是由于行业的景气度不高造成的？
　　樊慧远：一旦cpi上涨到超过5%的水平，是会导致百姓生活成本的全面上升，对消费者可能会造成极大的负面效应，消费信心也会快速下滑，支出变会有所萎缩，这个就会直接影响零售商尤其是百货、家电等弹性比较大的零售企业的一个销售，那么2011年四季度较高的物价对消费信心已经产生了影响，再加上购物卡新政的推出，还有2011年暖冬的这样一个天气特性，所以百货行业的冬装销售增长速度是低于全年同期的，我们初步判断零售行业四季度的收入增速将会有所放缓，所以零售行业全年的业绩增速将比前三季度有所放缓。但是优质上市公司的业绩增速我们认为还会保持在30%以上，而重庆百货它由于自身品牌整合关系，可能还没有完全捋顺，再加上有多家门店处于调整扩容期，所以它的
　　四季度收入是大幅减缓的，所以预计它的增速会低于行业内上市公司的平均增速。

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