国际能源署报告：走出能源困境非洲需加大改革力度

郑瑟

国际能源署报告：走出能源困境非洲需加大改革力度

    对于撒哈拉以南非洲地区来说，未来数十年里，丰富的能源资源有望成为其强劲增长的催化剂，但是前提是这些国家必须推进改革并升级基础设施。

    国际能源署（International Energy Agency）本周发布的一份报告显示，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的国家必须实施改革来吸引投资者，并投入数千亿美元对陈旧落后的基础设施进行升级改造。

    《非洲能源展望》（African Energy Outlook）报告发现，在过去五年里，全球探明的石油和天然气有30%来自撒哈拉以南非洲地区——该地区包括撒哈拉沙漠以南的若干国家。但与此同时，在当地9.15亿人口当中，仅有2.9亿人可以使用电力。这个人口基数只会不断增长。

    更糟糕的是，由于电力供应不足，该地区有五分之四的人口主要依靠柴禾和木炭做饭。预计到2040年，数值还将增长40%，热带雨林面临砍伐过度的险境，并且将进一步加重室内污染问题——室内污染已成为致使该地区人口早夭的第二大原因，仅次于艾滋病（AIDS）。

    “据我了解，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的能源资源非常丰富，但能源供应和生产却极度不足，”国际能源署首席经济学家法蒂赫•比罗尔在接受《财富》（Fortune）杂志的采访时表示。

    他介绍说：“这些地区蕴藏着巨大的石油和天然气发展潜力，并且在可再生能源方面，比如水电、风能和太阳能，潜力也都非常可观。而另一方面，非洲人民现有的可用能源却极度匮乏。”

    长期以来，非洲一直处于能源困境。像赤道几内亚或刚果共和国等石油、天然气和矿产资源丰富的国家，有极少的一部分人富了起来，但这些国家腐败泛滥，多数市民仍处于贫困之中。此外，能源资源是苏丹和尼日尼亚等国家地缘冲突的导火索，同时也是该地区长年发生政变和政治动荡的原因之一。

    国际能源署的报告中显示，除非各国采取措施应对能源领域的一系列问题，比如解决盛行的石油偷盗（每年为尼日利亚造成损失达50亿美元）和降低电价（这里是全球电价最高的地区之一），否则情况还会继续恶化。另外，腐败仍是在一些国家投资的“主要障碍”。

    “这里存在两个主要的掣肘——投资匮乏以及政府管理问题，”比罗尔表示，该地区能源业每年需要大约1.4亿美元的投资。

    “有一些投资进入该地区，但是我们的研究显示，目前非洲有三分之二的投资都是出口相关项目，而不是服务于非洲人民，”他评价说，“在我们看来，如果政府管理问题得不到解决，就不可能吸引投资。”


世界银行（World Bank）中西非能源专家梅克•范•辛内肯认为，该地区的水电、地热和天然气开发潜力巨大，但是她同时承认“这需要增加大量的投资”，尤其是来自于私营部门的投资，还需要加强电力输送系统的建设。

    “问题是，如何将这些巨量的资源转变为更多的电力供应？”范•辛内肯说，“这就需要大量的基础设施、高效的公用事业部门以及大量的投资。过去二十年来对非洲的投资非常少，但最近五年来能源投资的规模较大。所以，非洲正在迎头赶上。”

    该报告指出，为了确保到2040年非洲的能源资源有效改善该地区的生活水平，并且促进经济增长，需要对能源部门增加4,500亿美元的投资。此外，该报告还呼吁，进行区域合作来促成大规模的发电及输电项目，以及采取“严格透明”的管理流程来“更为有效地利用”油气收入。

    范•辛内肯指出，作为110亿美元能源投资的一部分，世界银行对区域合作的支持包括今年为班达天然气发电项目（Banda Gas-to-Power Project）提供的2.61亿美元担保，该项目利用毛里塔尼亚近海天然气田的天然气，可为该国新增300兆瓦电力，并可出口到马里和塞内加尔。

    这些项目还包括对区域电网及农村电气化改造的投资，如微型电网和离网太阳能发电。

    范•辛内肯进一步介绍说：“区域合作和搭建区域电网在降低成本方面非常关键，对私营部门更具吸引力，家庭用户也更容易负担。”

    如果实施一些变革，可再生能源也可以迎来新的发展机遇。据国际能源署预计，到2040年，可再生能源将占新增电力的一半左右。例如，水电目前占电力供给的20%，但仅有10%的技术潜力得到了利用。

    非洲开发银行（African Development Bank）能源、环境及气候变化部门（Energy, Environment and Climate Change Department）主任阿历克斯•鲁甘马指出，他也承认，对可再生能源的利用，将使得非洲有望走上比其周边的发达国家更为环保的发展道路。

    鲁甘马说：“确实，（非洲的）各种能源，包括地热、风能、太阳能，当然还有水电，潜力都非常大。我们肯定都会大力开发。”他还指出，2007年至2012年，非洲开发银行对能源部门的融资增加了一倍，达到430万美元。

    他表示，可再生能源发展所遇到的挑战包括太阳能高昂的前期资本投入，以及私营部门对地热行业投资的缺乏。“在蒸汽储量没有探明的情况下，私营部门通常不愿意投资地热资源。”鲁甘马介绍说，“目前有一些降低此类风险的计划正在酝酿之中，以吸引更多私营投资进入地热资源领域。”

    范•辛内肯和比罗尔均表示，他们有足够的信心相信，非洲会在能源行业做出必要的改革，国际能源署预测，到2040年该行业可推动当地经济增长30%。

    比罗尔表示，他已经看到几个国家率先对能源行业进行改革，其中包括尼日利亚、南非、加纳和卢旺达。与此同时，安哥拉正蓄势待发，有望取代尼日利亚成为非洲大陆最大的能源生产国，而坦桑尼亚和莫桑比克也计划充分利用其丰富的天然气资源。

    “我看到一些非洲国家开始认识到能源的重要性，并且积极进行能源改革，这种势头正在不断增长，”他说，“从好的治理模式，特别是有所改善的管理方式中，我看到了希望。我们有理由期待，能源业将成为带动非洲大陆经济增长的有力引擎。”

    范•辛内肯对此表示认同。她指出，在过去七年对能源行业的持续关注中，她已经看到了一些重要的变化。

    “我的确看到非洲在转变。”她肯定地说，“过去几年能源业的投资比过去二十年高出很多。这意味着可利用的能源资源有所增加，透明度也在得到改善，在非洲大裂谷（Rift Valley，位于东非）发现的天然气和地热资源也昭示着未来的巨大潜力。”（财富中文网）


     Sub-Saharan Africa’s vast energy resources could be a catalyst for strong growth in the coming decades, but only if countries push through reforms and upgrade their infrastructures.

    According to a report released Monday by the International Energy Agency, countries in the region must enact reforms that will attract investors and spend the hundred of billions needed to upgrade aging and poorly functioning infrastructures.

    The African Energy Outlook found that 30% of global oil and gas discoveries made over the past five years were from sub-Saharan Africa, which includes countries south of the Sahara desert. But at the same time only 290 million out of 915 million people have access to electricity. That figure is only rising.

    Worse, four out of five people in the region depend on firewood and charcoal mainly for cooking due to the lack of electricity. The projection is that figure will rise 40 percent by 2040, putting tropical forests at risk and further contributing to indoor pollution that is already the second biggest cause of premature death behind AIDS in the region.

    “When I look at the continent, sub-Saharan Africa is very rich in energy resources and very poor in energy supply and production,” IEA Chief Economist FatihBirol told Fortune.

    “There is huge potential both for oil and gas and, when it comes to renewables, huge potential for hydropower, wind and solar,” he said. “On the other hand, there is very little energy for the people in Africa.”

    Africa has long been plagued by the resource curse, where abundant oil, gas and minerals in places like Equatorial Guinea or the Republic of Congo have made a select few rich, led to widespread corruption and left the majority of citizens poor. The energy resources have also sparked conflict in countries such as Sudan and Nigeria, and have contributed to years of coups and political unrest.

    That trend is set to continue, the IEA report said, unless countries tackle the range of problems that hinder the energy sector, from widespread oil theft (worth $5 billion a year in Nigeria) to electricity tariffs across the region, which are among the highest in the world. Corruption, too, remains a “major barrier” to investment in some countries.

    “There are two major issues here — the lack of investment and the second one is the governance issue,” Birol said of the need for about $140 million a year across the region for the energy sector.

    “There are investments coming into the region but our study shows that today $2 out of $3 in Africa is for export-related projects not for the Africans,” he said. “We don’t see the investments can come if the governance issue is not fixed.”


     Meike van Ginneken, a World Bank expert on energy for west and central Africa, said she saw a lot of potential for hydropower, geothermal and natural gas across the region but agreed “investment needed to be increased tremendously” especially from the private sector and the building of power delivery systems.

    “The question is how do you translate these large resources into increased access?” Van Ginneken said. “What you need for that is a lot of infrastructure, functioning utilities and a lot of money. While there is a lot investment in energy in Africa in the past five years, there has a period of two decades where there was very little investment. So, Africa is catching up.”

    To ensure that the energy resources improve living standards and contribute to stronger economic growth by 2040, the report calls for investment of an additional $450 billion in the power sector. It also calls for regional cooperation that could lead to large-scale generation and transmission projects as well as the adoption of “robust and transparent” processes that would result in “more effective use” of oil and gas revenues.

    As part of its $11 billion in energy investments in Africa, van Ginneken said the World Bank has supported regional cooperation including the $261 million in guarantees this year for the Banda Gas-to-Power Project which will produce and convert natural gas from offshore gas fields in Mauritania into 300 megawatts of new electricity for the country and for export to Mali and Senegal.

    They are also investing in regional transmission grids and setting up rural electrification projects including min-grids and off-grid solar power.

    “Regional cooperation and regional power grids will play an important role in bringing down cost which will make it more attractive for the private sector and more affordable for households,” van Ginneken said.

    If some of the changes are enacted, renewables could also take off with the IEA projecting they could represent almost half the growth in electricity generation by 2040. Hydro, for example, represents 20% of the region’s power supply currently but only 10% of its technical potential has been realized.

    Alex Rugamba, director of the Energy, Environment and Climate Change Department at the African Development Bank, agreed that renewables offer a chance for the continent to pursue a greener path than the one chose by its more developed neighbors.

    “Certainly, the potential is high and we are seeing very good take up of all sorts of geothermal, wind, solar and, of course, hydro. We are definitely committed,” Rugamba said, adding that the bank has doubled its financing to the sector to $4.3 million from 2007 to 2012.

    Among the challenges, he said, were the high, upfront capital cost of solar and the lack of private sector investment into the geothermal sector. “The private sector is often reluctant about geothermal without proven reserves of steam,” Rugamba said. “There are some schemes underway to mitigate those risk so we get more private investment into geothermal.”

    Both van Ginneken and Birol said they were confident Africa will make the changes necessary in the energy sector, which the IEA projected could boost the economy 30% by 2040.

    Birol said he is already seeing several countries take the lead in reforming their energy sectors, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana and Rwanda. Angola, meanwhile, is poised to overtake Nigeria as the continents biggest energy producer while Tanzania and Mozambique are set to take advantage of significant natural gas discoveries.

    “I see a momentum being built in many African countries that are understanding the critical importance of energy and making some energy sector reforms,” he said. “I see hope there with good governance especially with better management. We could see the energy sector provide a strong trigger for economic growth on the continent.”

    Van Ginneken agreed, saying she has seen significant changes since she has been covering the sector the past seven years.

    “I certainly see Africa turning a corner,” she said. “The investment in the energy sector in the past few years has been much higher than the two decades before. This is translating into more access to resources, transparency is being improved and the potential of Africa with finds of gas and geothermal in the Rift Valley (in East Africa) is tremendous.”